June 16, 2015. 60 Seconds with Steve Monroe.

Everyone reported that CCRCs are going to have explosive job growth in the next five years, but are they missing the boat?

CCRCs And Employment Growth

As you have probably figured out by now, I like numbers and statistics, but too often, people report on numbers that are released by others without stepping back and asking if they make sense. One such number received some press recently. CareerBuilder came out with various industries that were expected to have the highest rate of job growth in the next five years. Surprisingly, CCRCs came in eighth place, with an estimated growth of nearly 94,000 jobs between now and 2019, for an increase of 21%. Now, according to ASHA’s annual State of Seniors Housing Report, the average CCRC has about 200 full time equivalent employees. That would mean that about 468 new CCRCs would have to be built to accommodate this 94,000 increase in employees in the sector, which would be about a 25% increase. This excludes, of course, additions at existing CCRCs. Let me just go on record that, while I think there will be some serious overbuilding in seniors housing very soon, I do not see it happening in the CCRC side of the business. Maybe 20 years from now.