Welltower Census Bottoming Out

Welltower Census Bottoming Out

Usually, a few weeks does not translate into a long-term trend, but for Welltower’s SHOP portfolio, it may just be the case. And it is one we have all been waiting for since it is the largest portfolio in the senior living sector to make some forecasts from.  After plummeting by approximately 1,200 basis points since February 2020, average occupancy has seemed to have bottomed out in March 2021 at 73.7%. The monthly declines in occupancy in the first quarter were already slowing, with March being the best of the pandemic era with just a 10-basis point drop. But for the weeks ended March 12 and March 19, it rested at 73.7%, before rising 20 basis points the next week and 10 the week after... Read More »
Capital Senior Living Comes Out With Fourth Quarter Earnings

Capital Senior Living Comes Out With Fourth Quarter Earnings

Better late than never, we suppose. On the last day of the first quarter, Capital Senior Living (CSU) came out with its fourth quarter earnings results, and the leaner (much leaner) company will hopefully be better able to navigate the numerous issues still facing it. Investors seemed somewhat optimistic, sending CSU shares up 3% in the hours immediately after the earnings call and up 12% early the next day, with the share price reaching a high of $42.00 per share on April 1.   There is some reason to be optimistic. Since CSU announced it had exiting all of its triple-net leases on January 7 (which resulted in reduced lease liabilities of $265.4 million and improved... Read More »
Getting Very Mad

Getting Very Mad

Academics say that PE firms are responsible for the deaths of up to 20,000 Medicare patients over 12 years. Reckless. I don’t know about you, but I am really getting mad at what I am reading. Four academics just came out with a research paper on the impact of private equity on the skilled nursing industry. Backed up by equations that few of us would understand, they concluded that private equity firms are responsible for up to 20,000 deaths of Medicare patients in nursing homes over a 12-year period. Really? The study included 128 deals for 1,674 facilities and 136 unique PE firms that acquired nursing facilities. Hmm. 136 “unique” PE firms. Even over 12 years that seems like a stretch. I... Read More »
Getting Very Mad

Skilled Nursing Needs A Break

With pressure from the media, the public and government agencies, the skilled nursing industry will be losing some of its best people. Not the time for that to happen. A good friend of mine sent me an article about a New York nursing home administrator who is angry at the fact that nursing homes have been villainized and scapegoated, especially in New York. Where were the car parades in front of nursing homes, like they were in front of hospitals, thanking them for caring for the frail elderly, he asks, and risking their lives as well? Nonexistent, sadly. He couldn’t take it anymore, and moved to Michigan, where he is happily working as an administrator after 20 years in New York. He has... Read More »
Getting Very Mad

Can Skilled Nursing Be Reformed?

The American Health Care Association and Leading Age have proposed a reform agenda for skilled nursing. As usual, the problem is Medicaid. The American Health Care Association and Leading Age have proposed a policy “agenda” to address some of the problems that exist in skilled nursing facilities today, which were obviously highlighted by the impact of the pandemic.  As part of the reforms, they want enhanced infection control practices, 24-hour RNs, 30-day minimum supply of PPE, better recruiting and retention of staff, improved oversight systems, and a shift to all private rooms. There is little here to disagree with, except that they expect Medicaid to pick up most of the $15... Read More »
Getting Very Mad

Is Brookdale Bottoming Out

Even though Brookdale Senior Living reported its lowest census levels ever in February, the month-to-month declines were low and may signal a bottom soon. As most of you know, I have been pretty negative about where things were going last year, and how long it might take for the industry to dig out of its hole. But my gut tells me things are beginning to turn around. Brookdale Senior Living just reported on its February occupancy, and I believe it is the first major seniors housing company to report average occupancy for the month below 70%. It hit 69.4%. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the monthly decline of 60 basis points was the smallest since last March. And the month-end... Read More »