Senior Care Soars

Senior Care Soars

What happened on November 9 was a bit of a shock, but in a good way. Senior care and REIT stocks soared after a year of forgettable foibles. The reason? Pfizer’s announcement that its COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective, and that it could be available very soon, combined with the apparent end of the presidential election with Joe Biden the victor. We believe it was the end of the uncertainty on both accounts that pushed the market up.  For those not paying attention, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point during the day hit a record high of 29,933, up 5.68% from the previous close. It ended the day up 2.95%. But it was the senior care market and its related REITs... Read More »
Capital Senior Living Continues to Shrink

Capital Senior Living Continues to Shrink

As many of you know, for several years we have been pressing Brookdale Senior Living to reduce its size further than what it has already accomplished. In the meantime, Capital Senior Living is getting smaller by the day, and while we understand why, we certainly hope Brookdale does not go down this somewhat extreme path in size (very doubtful). Cap Senior is now forecasting to be one-half the size it was two years ago, with 60 owned communities and eight managed. The leases will be gone.  During the course of the third quarter, like other operators, Capital Senior Living has been improving its capital structure, shedding unprofitable leases, handing properties over... Read More »
Brookdale Senior Living Reports

Brookdale Senior Living Reports

Even in the depths of a pandemic and a disrupted economy, there is always the bright side of things, right? Brookdale Senior Living, the largest seniors housing provider in the country, reported its third quarter earnings results and certainly had some positive things to say about where the company is today and how it will improve in the future. Always lead with your best. Unfortunately, shareholders focused on the problems and sent the share price down by 15% right off the bat.  The good news for the future is that they completed a major lease restructuring with Ventas, reducing future cash rent by about $500 million over the remaining lease term ending in December 2025.... Read More »
Is The Election Over Yet?

Is The Election Over Yet?

No matter who wins, there will be violence and we still have not dealt with Social Security and Medicare. Pathetic. Unfortunately, I am writing this just after I voted today, but before we will know the outcome for the White House and the Senate. I think it is a safe bet that the House will remain where it is, more or less. It was the first time I have ever had to wait in line, 30 minutes. I have now voted in 12 presidential elections, and I am sad to say that I voted for the winner in just four of them, with one still unknown. Not a good track record, or am I out of step with the rest of the country? Perhaps, but I don’t like to think so. But in those 12 elections, this is the first time... Read More »
A Novel Idea: Bonus Payments to Skilled Nursing Facilities

A Novel Idea: Bonus Payments to Skilled Nursing Facilities

We were heartened to hear that 10,631 nursing facilities will be receiving a total of $333 million from HHS based on improving COVID-19 metrics. While it sounds like a lot, it comes to just over $31,000 per facility. The good news is that this is just the first of five potential payments for good performance. The performance was for just one month, from August to September, whereby these 10,631 facilities had 1,200 fewer COVID- related deaths month over month.  Apparently, this is all part of HHS’s goal to use a little more of the carrot and less of the stick when dealing with the nursing home industry. About 77% of the eligible facilities received the funds. It would be... Read More »
Welltower Is First To Report Third Quarter Results

Welltower Is First To Report Third Quarter Results

As expected, Welltower reported a 150-basis point decline in occupancy in its 557-community seniors housing operating portfolio (SHOP) to 78.4%. The good news is that this is a much smaller decline compared with the second quarter’s drop of 490 basis points. Through October 23, occupancy declined by another 30 basis points since the end of September, and management expects the full fourth quarter drop to be between 75 and 125 basis points.   The slowing decrease is positive, and while they did not forecast 2021 occupancy, as an industry, census has never increased in the first quarter, so even with the slowing trend line, occupancy for this large portfolio is expected... Read More »