The private market valuation may have peaked, but the public market may have seen its low.
As you know, I have been vocal about the acquisition market being at a peak for most of this year, at least when it comes to pricing. It just seems hard to imagine cap rates declining further with a rate hike looking like a reality….at least, according to consensus thinking. But the public markets are a different story. It has been a real roller coaster, but mostly down. But, and this is a big but, the downward spiral was so bad we just may have hit bottom. And November 13 is looking like the bottom, at least for now. On the provider side, both Kindred Healthcare and Genesis Health hit new lows on that day, as did Welltower, HCP, and Senior Housing Properties Trust on the REIT side, with Ventas a few days earlier. Brookdale Senior Living hit its low of $20.27 in late October, and has rallied by 15% since then. Any time there is an inordinately large drop in prices related less to fundamentals and more to change in sentiment, one has to start thinking bargains. While we may not be in the clear yet, join me tomorrow on our webinar on the skilled nursing M&A market, where we will dissect what is happening today and where it may be going tomorrow.