Buyers’ SNF opportunity

The recent trends of the 10-year Treasury Rate and the average skilled nursing facility cap rates have provided a lot of flexibility for buyers in how they price their acquisitions and negotiate with lenders. After rising from its low in 2012, the average 10-year rate was slowing increasing through 2014 and then dropped a bit in 2015 to a three-year low. But, for the past four years, the 10-year Treasury rate, which has long been thought of as “risk-free,” has averaged 2.5% or lower, or more than 200 basis points lower than during the last market peak of 2006 to 2007. What is interesting to follow is the spread between the 10-year rate and the average skilled nursing cap rate. Nearly 10 years ago, that spread narrowed to 750 basis points, but in four of the past five years the spread has been over 1,000 basis points. Although not the largest spread in recent years, in 2015 the spread jumped a bit to 1,010 basis points. So even though cap rates have been declining in a market with low interest rates, the theoretical return to the buyer has increased marginally. Could this opportunity for buyers push SNF prices even higher?

 

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