I know as one gets older, confusion can become more common. And today, I am a little confused about the state of the senior living industry.
-Sponsored by The Senior Care Acquisition Reports
NIC MAP has reported that maybe we have hit bottom in the third quarter, and that new construction starts are starting to decline, even though new openings remain high. Assisted living occupancy, while posting a small sequential increase, still remains far too low to get excited, but bottoming out would be welcome news.
Then, Ventas reported its third quarter earnings, painting a not-so-pretty picture. Their RIDEA operating portfolio has not been performing well, posting a 5.0% decline in year-over-year NOI growth. They also lowered their forecast for the full year and 2020. Management said assisted living was still suffering from the overbuilding and price discounting. The share price had an unusually sharp 13% plunge.
A few days later, Welltower came out with its Q3 numbers, and a different picture was presented. Same-community NOI growth was 2.8% year over year, and assisted living operations performed better than expected. The mood was upbeat. Its share price jumped by more than 3%. You can understand my sense of confusion.
My takeaway is that when we really begin to recover, it is going to be a very different recovery, provider to provider. And that, my friends, is going to make for an interesting time. Next up? Brookdale Senior Living and Capital Senior Living.