The COVID-19 vaccine was supposed to solve the census crisis brought on by the virus, but it is not happening fast enough. Optimism still exists, however.
A lot has been riding on the success of the vaccine rollout, for everyone personally as well as for the entire senior care industry. But I am worried.
When I hear that certain areas are running out of vaccines, when I hear that it may not be as effective with some of the new strains entering our country, when I hear from some providers that up to 50% of their staff have decided not to get vaccinated, well, what does that say about how and when we will recover from this devastating virus?
There is some optimism out there, with one industry survey indicating that 49% of the respondents believe that census will return to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of this year, and 10% think it will be the first half. I am sorry, I truly am, but I just don’t think those respondents are grounded in reality, just hopefulness.
While I certainly hope we can get there by year end, the numbers just don’t add up. The spread of this virus was supposed to be more contained by now, and it isn’t. And then, President Biden ups his promise from 1 million vaccines a day for the next 100 days, to 1.5 million. That would be great, but again, not going to happen if you are running out today.
I am sorry to always seem so negative, but I view it as being a realist. Why say things that you and I know are not true? I don’t and I won’t. Maybe the new J&J vaccine will get him to his 1.5 million, but we still have to convince people to get it. I am scheduled, are you?
The excellent literature on “excess deaths,” which is mortality that is beyond what is expected, year after year, is straightforward. People move into ALF’s at very predictable rates. They used to die at equally predictable rates. The virus will have taken about three years of frail residents out of all long term care (it’s not done yet) by the time it runs its course. So, PPP for three years or survival of the balance sheets, a.k.a throw in the keys, take a haircut etc.
John, where did you get the three years number? I have been telling people to not expect pent-up dmeand for assisted living but many don’t believe me.