The census problems at Brookdale Senior Living definitely bottomed out late in the winter of this year. Weighted average occupancy in both February and March was 69.4%, a level at which it is tough to make money. But that has increased by 180 basis points in June to 71.2%, still a low number but moving in the right direction. And it has increased for three straight months at a time when historically the industry sees little occupancy gains.
Occupancy levels at the end of each month have done even better. These bottomed out in February at 70.1% and increased for four straight months, ended June at 72.6% for a 250-basis point increase in four months. Again, this is a time period when we don’t see many increases in census.
There is still a long way to go to get back to normal, or anywhere close to it. Year over year, weighted average census is still 620 basis points lower, and month-end census is 520 basis points lower than a year ago. We assume Brookdale participates in the NIC Map data reports, and if so, as the largest seniors housing provider and doing fairly well, their results should have an outsized impact on NIC’s numbers. But NIC MAP is showing flat occupancy from the first quarter to the second quarter, which we reported on last Friday. So, if Brookdale’s numbers are in the NIC MAP numbers, that means a number of providers were either flat in the second quarter or continued to post declines in census.
No one said the recovery would be equal among the providers, and certainly not equal geographically. A month ago, we believed the southern states would lead the way with census recovery, but with their low vaccination rates, and the Delta variant spreading more in states with high proportions of unvaccinated residents, the South may not be leading the way if that scenario worsens. The census movement will be fluid for the rest of the year, but we certainly hope history repeats itself and the third quarter is a good one for occupancy increases. The fourth quarter has always been a mixed bag, but that may change this year.
