Just when we thought we were emerging from the pandemic crisis, the news seems to be getting worse about this Delta variant. The good news, at least for seniors housing providers, is that it is a much younger population that is getting hit, not senior care residents because they are almost all vaccinated. Hellooooo.
A few months ago, we wrote that the southern, and maybe southeastern region would lead the census charge from the lows in March. Unfortunately, the positivity and hospitalization rates with the Delta variant have been the highest in the southern states, with Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas and Missouri leading the way, and not in a good way. The region also suffers from some of the lowest vaccination rates. This is not coincidence.
Historically, the third quarter has been the only quarter that has consistently posted increases in occupancy, year in and year out, for 10 years. But despite the current wave, seniors housing may be the safest place to live because of the high vaccination rates and an increasing number of providers requiring staff to be fully vaccinated. As a result, there will not be the bad press of a year ago.
This reality has to be disseminated if the recovery is to remain on track, even though we still believe it will take longer than many people will accept. And if there is wave four, five and six, and mandates and shutdowns in the northern states appear again this winter, well, who knows? Let’s hope not, but remember, hope is not a business plan.
