When we did our analysis of NIC MAP census data in late 2020, we discovered that from 2009 to 2020, there was only one year when the assisted living sector did not report a Q1 decline in average occupancy. That was in 2012, when census stayed flat. Not only that, every year after 2012 reported a Q2 decline as well. All this showed us that the road to recovery for the seniors housing market would be long following the pandemic, and much longer than most optimistic predictions at the time.
Last year’s first quarter continued the trend, as the industry bottomed out and most public providers hit their lows too. Although, vaccines had only just started being distributed to seniors, and there was another COVID wave during the winter, so there were other factors beyond seasonality issues.
So the first real test of this Q1 census trend, post-COVID, was this year, and we have to say, the seniors housing industry surpassed our expectations. Welltower’s SHOP portfolio posted a 70-basis point increase from the end of December to the end of March, Brookdale Senior Living saw census rise 50 basis points during the same period, Sonida Senior Living’s weighted average occupancy rose 100 basis points from the previous quarter, and finally NIC MAP reported a 20-basis point increase in seniors housing occupancy from the fourth quarter to the first, finally breaking that 13-year trend. Now, let’s see if we’ll break that second quarter curse too.
