As you may remember, in October 2020 we did a comprehensive study of seniors housing occupancy for the 10 years leading up to the pandemic. What we found surprised us in many ways. We used assisted living occupancy as a proxy for the entire seniors housing market, mostly because it is the largest segment, using the NIC MAP census numbers.
What we found was that for the 11 years prior to the pandemic, occupancy had never increased in the first quarter of any year. In the first quarter of 2022, however, Brookdale Senior Living beat those odds by posting a 50-basis point increase in month-end occupancy after dropping 30 basis points in January. Weighted average occupancy for that quarter was flat.
The odds are not looking good for a repeat in 2023. February’s weighted average occupancy dropped 30 basis points sequentially after a 40-basis point decline in January. Month-end census decreased by a smaller 20 basis points in February to 77.4%, after falling by 50 basis points in January.
Brookdale will need to have a killer March to post a full first quarter increase in census. A year ago, weighted average and month-end occupancy increased by 30 basis points and 60 basis points, respectively. Given the industry history, those were good numbers. The problem the company is facing is that month-end occupancy this past February is the lowest it has been since July 2022. They climbed out of the rut of 69% occupancy at their pandemic low, but are having trouble getting above the 77% to 78% area. This needs to change this year.
