Across U.S. senior care M&A activity, we have surpassed 400 transactions in the first 11 months of the year, hitting 402. That is more than 15% down from the 476 transactions recorded in the first 11 months of 2022, but we are not sure many would have predicted the market even exceeding 400 deals. Of course, deals will continue to trickle in from the previous months, and December could yield its usual rush of closings, but we would be lucky to reach 450 deals on the year, far below 2022’s U.S. total of 517 deals.
However, believe it or not, 2023’s estimated annual deal count of, let’s conservatively call it 440 deals publicly announced in the U.S., would be a very healthy number, historically. The next highest total would be 429 deals in 2021 and 424 deals in 2019, the previous peaks in deal volume before 2022.
The total disclosed dollar volume spent on deals, is another matter. Total spending on the year has so far failed to reach $4 billion, based on disclosed prices for U.S. deals. Compare that to nearly $10.5 billion in disclosed spending in the first 11 months of last year. Some stability in the capital markets and narrower bid-ask spreads should help make 2024 a rebound year, but to what degree, we will see.
