We all know that historically the winter months have never been kind to nursing home census. Known as the flu season, occupancy tends to drop in the first quarter by 50 to 100 basis points, if not more. The same has been true for assisted living, especially since acuity levels started rising more than a decade ago. The one exception for some providers was during the pandemic recovery, when census was ramping up at unprecedented rates in general, and the flu was nothing compared with COVID.
Brookdale Senior Living just announced its February occupancy results, and while they noted it was an improvement from “normal” pre-pandemic seasonality, first quarter-to-date occupancy declined by 40 basis points compared with the full fourth quarter 2023. Average census in February was 77.9%, which is the lowest since last August and just a 10-basis point drop from January. The same results were followed for month-end occupancy, which was a higher 79.2%, or 10 basis points lower than in both January and December. But it would have been nice to see them buck the trend.
Brookdale also announced it expects to report full first quarter results in the top half of its previously provided first quarter 2024 RevPAR and Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges. The news initially sent the share price up by 7.2%.
