So, the 2024 election results are in, and many people were surprised, many shocked, some cried and some cheered, and many who did not vote wished they had. But wherever you are on the political spectrum, if you invest in seniors housing and care, the outlook for you may be better with the election outcome. I say that because Mr. Trump is more pro-business and pro-real estate than Ms. Harris, and the Biden/Harris administration was set to make some changes in staffing and PE investing which our sector was not too happy about.
The proposed nursing home staffing mandate will most likely go out the window, and pressure on private equity investing in seniors housing may be put on the backburner with the new administration, even though both of these issues were not high-priority items in the election, for either side.
The one thing that investors may be missing is that as pro-business as Mr. Trump is, what his proposed policies may do to inflation and interest rates will not be in the industry’s best interest. Just look at where the 10-year Treasury has increased to since the election. As of late yesterday it had increased to 4.43%, or 80 basis points higher than the 3.63% low for 2024. With the Fed’s recent 50 basis point cut, excitement began to build that debt costs would finally start to drop. Unfortunately, it may take just a bit longer if tariffs and increasing federal deficits take their toll.
