While I did not make it to the NIC Spring Conference last week, my colleagues Ben and Steph were there to meet and greet the record crowd. The crowd included a lot of smiling faces.
Some takeaways included the expectation that liquidity is returning and that we will see bigger deals this year. Also, lenders will be putting out more cash in 2025 than in 2024. All of this bodes well for the M&A market.
There was, however, some concern about what the Trump Administration is doing, and what the impact will be on seniors housing and care. And there should be concern.
Even though the labor situation has improved, my guess is that there will be fewer low-wage workers around given some expected changes in immigration policies. In addition, if the tariffs proceed, inflation will hang around longer and we don’t know anyone who is talking about a 100 basis-point drop in interest rates anytime soon.
None of these are good for the seniors housing market, and the need for more units to be built. And then there is the talk of recession and the current stock market plunge, which does not bode well for consumer confidence, and major decisions like moving into seniors housing.
This may be the best opportunity in a generation to invest in seniors housing, as it should be, but there will always be bumps in the road, and an occasional pothole or two. Let’s just not screw up the current recovery. I hope to see even more smiling faces at the NIC Fall Meeting.
