The Welltower Census Decline

The Welltower Census Decline

Welltower’s seniors housing partners continue to suffer from census declines and operating costs. We do appreciate the transparency that Welltower has been providing investors, but boy does it provide a window onto what is happening. In its monthly update, Welltower informed us that it suffered its worst monthly census decline since May. December’s SHOP occupancy fell 100 basis points from November, compared with -70 basis points in November and -170 basis points in May. With the pandemic spreading, census dropped another 85 basis points to just 75.3% as of January 15. Not looking forward to everyone’s fourth quarter earnings calls. Move-ins were the lowest in six months, and... Read More »
The Welltower Census Decline

Assisted Living Is Not A Nursing Home

The media continues to throw all seniors housing into the nursing home basket. It has to stop now, especially in this time of COVID. Here I go again, or better yet, here goes the uninformed New York Times again. In a story last week called, “Voices From Inside Nursing Homes,” I didn’t know whether these would be the voices of workers, or the residents who felt isolated with little social interaction. It was mostly neither. It was voices from children of residents, and in two cases, the resident; one “voice” was that of a staffer. The problem was that most were not voices from nursing homes. They were from a residential care facility, a seniors housing complex, an assisted living community,... Read More »
The Welltower Census Decline

Active Adult: Is Now The Time

The active adult market may fill a lot of voids in seniors housing, including price points and attracting younger “seniors.” Join our webinar as we dissect the market with industry leaders and see how these new properties are trading in the market. First of all, Happy New Year. It has got to be better than the last one. The coronavirus pandemic has certainly disrupted the senior living industry, at least for now. Are consumers going to be afraid of moving into a senior living community once the vaccine is widely distributed? Will cost become a more  important factor for choosing the type of community to move into? How about paying for what you only want or need? These will... Read More »
The Welltower Census Decline

Saying Goodbye To 2020

It’s time to put 2020 to rest, and in 2021 we will all do our best. If you happen to be listening to this on Christmas Eve Hopefully you will remember it came from Steve As you know, 2020 was a terrible year And in our industry, it brought little cheer What with shortages of tests and PPE Let’s not forget those of us who ran out of TP COVID was nasty, don’t we all know And it cost the providers a lot of dough Blame was cast by the media for sure But your resilience means we will all endure There’s no time to waste, the message still needs to get out That you are a safe place to live, there is no doubt So, as we journey into another year anew I wish you health and happiness in all you... Read More »
The Welltower Census Decline

The Vaccine Is Here, Now What

The coronavirus vaccine appeared sooner than most people expected, but the roll out may be bumpy.  Senior care providers and residents are about to be the first people vaccinated against COVID-19. That is great news, and putting your politics aside, no one, me included, thought this would happen before year end. But it did. Now what? The media loves to film the first person getting a shot, but the full roll out will be a bit more cumbersome than the staff at a single hospital. Nursing homes and assisted living communities are on the priority list, but because their residents are healthier, IL communities are not. They will have to wait. And that is wrong. The big unknown is how many... Read More »
The Welltower Census Decline

Capital Senior Living Zooms

After spending the summer and fall months trading at 50 to 70 cents a share, Capital Senior Living’s shares zoomed up last week. If anyone was watching the stock market last week, you had to notice that Capital Senior Living’s shares just zoomed. Since November 20, the price has almost doubled to $1.38, and last week alone they were up about 50%. Now, we do need some perspective, since the starting point was just 73 cents a share, so any movement results in an exaggerated percentage increase. Still, an increase is an increase. But why? I am sure there were some mutterings about someone buying the company. But if you do the math, it just doesn’t work. Using third quarter occupancy and... Read More »