Where Occupancy May Be By July
The coronavirus was much worse then expected, as was its impact on senior care providers. I have to admit I was wrong, but just the third time in 34 years. In late February, I referred to the coronavirus as the flu on steroids, and that the senior care industry was prepared to deal with it. I was wrong on both accounts. It was much worse than anything on steroids, and many providers were not prepared for this one. I am not sure anyone could have adequately prepared for a deadly disease that can be quickly spread by asymptomatic staff and visitors. Some people think they have escaped the worst part of the coronavirus, and they may be right. But this is not going to be a short-term problem.... Read More »
Are Nursing Home Residents Really “Sitting Ducks”?
Nursing home residents live there because they are frail and often with major illnesses. As a result, they are more prone to infections than others, with worse outcomes. But don’t call them sitting ducks. We all know that The New York Times has had an issue with the entire skilled nursing sector for many years. They just like to pick on it, and when there is a major problem, they pounce. Much like they did last year with the record HUD loan loss, and now this year with the pandemic. But what really irritated me was the recent front-page headline which included, “Residents Are Sitting Ducks.” Now, this phrase did come from someone they interviewed, but the only thing the reader will... Read More »
Getting Personal With COVID-19
When COVID-19 hits close to home. So, here we are in week three of shelter in place. Actually, week four for me. Two weeks ago, I was about the only one wearing a mask in one of my two trips to the grocery store. Now most everyone is, which makes sense. On one of the trips, I was actually told by someone that I was not supposed to be wearing one because I was asymptomatic. My how things have changed. I live in a small town of 20,000, and we have had 82 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 10 deaths. That’s a 12% death rate, and it has been at that rate for the past week and a half, with about one death a day. I assume that 12% rate will come down as more tests are given, but it does seem out of... Read More »
Capital Senior Living Finally Reports
After a two-week delay, Capital Senior Living reports fourth quarter results, and a little of first quarter. After delaying its fourth quarter earnings release by two weeks, Capital Senior Living finally produced the results. And they were not as bad as we expected. Phew. To be honest, I was thinking it could be so bad that bankruptcy would be floated as an option. Not this quarter. The bottom line is that the fourth quarter was not good, with same-community year-over-year occupancy declining by 290 basis points to 81.4%, and the operating margin falling by 600 basis points to 29%. Both are very large drops in a 12-month time frame. And both are worse than their peer group. The good news... Read More »
Stock Buybacks vs. Dry Powder
Should REITs be using excess cash to buy back their shares at cheap prices, or wait and go bargain hunting for cheap properties? Good morning. I am in day nine of my 14-day self-quarantine, and have yet to go stir crazy. Apparently, in Connecticut, liquor stores are exempt from the shut-down. Hmmm. While we hear anecdotally that occupancy levels in seniors housing remain relatively unchanged, I do not see how that will remain so in the coming weeks and months. Companies and owners, such as REITs, are just beginning to report confirmed cases of COVID-19, along with the unfortunate deaths. While expected, we still continue to hope they can keep it to a minimum. One thing I am a little... Read More »Schedule a demo
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