Brookdale vs. Land & Buildings
Jonathan Litt of activist investor Land & Buildings has sent yet another letter to Brookdale Senior Living shareholders, still calling for a sale of the real estate. It appears that Brookdale Senior Living is at the early stages of righting its ship. And, activist investor Jonathan Litt of Land & Buildings has been complimenting management for its actions in the past year. But he still is not happy. Who could blame him with Brookdale’s share price still in the toilet at under $8.00 per share. He continues to believe the market is not recognizing the inherent value in Brookdale’s owned real estate, to which we continue to say, that is not how the market should value an operating... Read More »
Rolling Four Quarters Multiples
It has certainly been a busy year in the M&A market, with transaction volume on pace to top last year’s, according to The Senior Care Acquisition Report. Despite all the headwinds and headline issues, buyers are still very active, and in many cases paying top dollar for the assets they want. The independent living market remains the strongest, with the average price per unit rising to $241,300 for the 12 months ended June 30, 2018, or 5% higher than in calendar year 2017. The average cap rate was 7.2%. The assisted living market, where all the excess development has been, dropped by 5% to $209,100 per unit for the 12 months ended June 30, compared with last year. The average cap rate... Read More »
Should Cap Rates Go Lower?
Two major REIT CEOs can see seniors cap rates moving below multifamily for the first time. The Big Two REITs have reported their second earnings, and while occupancy and labor costs certainly remain an issue for their operating partners, there was one funny comment that came out of the calls. Well, funny if you get your kicks from these sorts of things the way I do. Apparently, Welltower CEO Tom DeRosa and Ventas CEO Debbie Cafaro see eye to eye on at least one thing. As one analyst joked, they both apparently agree that seniors housing cap rates should be lower than multifamily, and I think they were even talking about assisted living. The reason? Because demand will do nothing but grow,... Read More »
Occupancy And Active Adult Communities
Seniors housing occupancy hits a low because of new supply, while active adult communities begin to take off. As you know, occupancy in seniors housing now stands at a low point since the Great Recession, especially on the assisted living side. Eighteen months ago, “the market” was looking for a turn around by the second half of 2018. Not happening. Now it is the second half of 2019, with some looking at 2020. Maybe happening. New supply has obviously had its impact, and people keep on developing. But some developers are moving into what is variously called the 55+ market or “active adult” communities. They are easier to zone, cheaper to build and don’t require much staff, all important... Read More »
The Warning Signs Were There
With assisted living occupancy now at an eight-year low, the reasons seemed very obvious a few years ago. I am a hoarder. I like to keep reports, articles, magazines and anything else of interest pertaining to seniors housing and care. So, last night I was cleaning up some papers stacked in my office and came across one of Jerry Doctrow’s first blogs since retiring from Stifel Nicolaus in 2015. Dated January 6, 2016, it was called, “Why Near-Term Trends Could Spell Trouble for Senior Housing.” As I re-read it, all I thought was, why didn’t more people see the problem back then? NIC MAP had just come out with its most recent quarterly data on occupancy and construction, and while not... Read More »Schedule a demo
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