60 Seconds with Swett: What Could Stop the M&A Momentum?
Last week, we recorded our 560th deal of 2024, which breaks the annual record for M&A volume across seniors housing and skilled nursing transactions. And we have more than two months to go. So there can be no dispute that we will set an M&A record this year, and by a large margin. But could 2024 actually end with a whimper? We ask that because the 10-Year Treasury rate, which fell to 3.6% in September, the lowest level in more than a year and a half, is now above 4.2%, or the highest level since July. Much of the optimism at the NIC conference last month hinged on the Fed’s 50-basis point rate reduction in September and the 10-Year rate was at its low then too, but what about now?... Read More »
Brookdale and the Golden Age
A lot has been made recently of the looming Golden Age of seniors housing. An analyst at Jefferies & Co. came out with a strong recommendation of Brookdale Senior Living and its potential to take advantage of the upcoming age wave. They referred to Brookdale as the leading senior living provider well positioned for this. A more accurate description would be the largest senior living provider. It did not matter, as the share price jumped by 12% during the day on very heavy volume. But we have seen this movie before. To take advantage of the Golden Age a few things have to happen, and one is to negotiate a new lease for its 121 properties with Ventas that will provide more cash flow to... Read More »
Do Elections Matter?
In less than three weeks we will be having an election that could set the stage for what happens in the country for many years to come. Or not. There is always a lot of fearmongering over what one candidate will do compared with the other. Usually, change comes slowly, or not at all. As is usually the case in presidential elections, there is little talk about senior care, other than the growing costs of entitlements, with no reasonable solutions coming from either side. It is a topic that is easily avoided, and we are tired of the lip service. But in Washington State, there are several initiatives on the ballot, one of which involves taxes and LTC insurance. You will remember that... Read More »
The People’s Republic of New York At It Again
The saga of The Harborside on New York’s Long Island has been more than a decade in the making. Opened in 2010 and originally known as Amsterdam of Harborside, a not-for-profit entity, it has now filed for bankruptcy protection three times (2014, 2021 and 2023). Nothing like a little financial uncertainty to drive census, which is at about 50%. There are about 330 IL and AL units. Nearly 10 months ago, the bankruptcy court approved the sale to Iowa-based Life Care Services (LCS), partly because they agreed to keep it open, pay down the entrance fees to people who had moved or to their estates, and invest some capital. From media reports, it appears the residents wanted LCS to buy it, as... Read More »
Brookdale’s Still Lagging
After Brookdale Senior Living finally topped 80% in month-end occupancy in August, reaching 80.4%, the company reported 80.5% in month-end occupancy for September, indicating weaker momentum going into Q4 compared to prior years. We said improvements would need to be maintained through Q4 to head into the winter/flu season in a strong position. So far, the company is, unfortunately, only maintaining, with just a 10 basis point increase from August to September. Brookdale also reported a Q3 average occupancy of 78.9%. Yes, this is an 80-basis point increase quarter over quarter and a 130-basis point increase year over year, but it is typical to see senior living occupancy grow the... Read More »Schedule a demo
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