


Brookdale: Has The Long-Awaited Turnaround Begun?
Late on April 10, Brookdale Senior Living reported its March occupancy results, and disclosed that preliminarily, the first quarter financial results looked to be better than originally forecast. The market pounced on the news that first quarter adjusted EBITDA would be “meaningfully” above previously issued guidance. Revenue was higher than expected while expenses were in line with fourth quarter expenses, meaning little inflationary cost pressures. The share price surged by more than 30%. Finally, some good news. Let’s hope this is not merely a case of under-promising and overperforming, because if the second quarter does not come in better, then what investors giveth they and taketh... Read More »
Mounting Troubles For Sonida Senior Living
When we read Sonida Senior Living’s recent fourth quarter earnings report, we had already heard that it contained the dreaded “going concern” caveat. While not surprising, what was surprising was how glowing the highlights were. Management “was thrilled with what our team has accomplished in Q4 and throughout 2022,” but five pages later it is disclosed that the company may run out of cash and fail to meet its obligations. Hmmm. Investors sent the share price tumbling by 40%. We were not surprised because in our November 2022 issue we stated that we thought the company would run out of money by April of this year based on its cash burn rate. We are now at the end of March, and cash... Read More »
More Trouble Brewing in Credit Markets
We had all heard that the first half of this year was going to see a spike in loan defaults, forced sales of properties and other signs of financial distress in the seniors housing and care sector. But we are not sure many people thought there would be one this big. We are talking about the TPG Real Estate and Sabra Health Care REIT joint venture involving 157 assisted living communities in 18 states operated by Enlivant, which is the former Assisted Living Concepts. This was not a great portfolio to begin with, and it consists of mostly small and older properties in secondary markets. Sabra purchased a 49% interest in the portfolio in January 2018, paying a hefty price to help the... Read More »