A Conversation on the Bridge Lending Market with Oxford Finance
The industry is emerging from the pandemic, but new issues are always arising, so how are lenders reacting and how do they distinguish pandemic problems from provider problems? Ben Swett sat down with Kevin Harbour and Tracy Maziek of Oxford Finance to discuss the state of the bridge lending market in a rising interest rate environment. Read More »Brookdale Provides Update
Brookdale Senior Living just released its occupancy update for February, and our first take was that things need to be better than that. Then, we remembered our late 2020 analysis which showed that assisted living occupancy has never increased in the first quarter for each of the past 10 years. Therefore, we should not expect too much this quarter. In this light, Brookdale’s census outlook is not too bad. From January to February, the weighted average occupancy dropped just 10 basis points to 73.3%. Even better, the month-end occupancy increased by 20 basis points from the end of January to 74.4%. The problem is that census at the end of September was 74.2%, so we have seen little overall... Read More »
Welltower: Riding Out The Storm
There were no surprises in Welltower’s fourth quarter and full-year 2021 earnings report, which we suppose is a good thing. Could the seniors housing portfolio be performing better? Yes, but so could everyone else’s portfolio. The U.S. seniors housing owned portfolio (SHOP) has seen a slowdown in census increase, with no change in December, which followed a 50-bp rise in November and 30-bp increase in October. That results in 80 basis points of census increase in three months, compared with 260 bp in the third quarter previous and 280 bps in the second quarter. While there is some seasonality in that fourth quarter number, we also may have seen the end of the “post-lockdown” boost, or the... Read More »
Brookdale Reports and Provides Guidance
Not since the pandemic hit has Brookdale Senior Living provided guidance on adjusted EBITDA and RevPAR growth. It is something that has been missing for investors and analysts, but Brookdale was not alone in suspending guidance. It just became too difficult for anyone in the senior care business to predict with any amount of certainty what the next quarter or year would bring. Full year adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $240 million and $260 million, while RevPAR is expected to grow by 10% to 12% in 2022. Adjusted EBITDA in 2021 was $138.5 million, but $283.6 million in 2020. The good news is that this means management has more confidence with where their operations are going. We... Read More »
LPCs/CCRCs Do It Again
According to a new report from investment banking firm Ziegler, based on information provided by NIC, the LPC/CCRC market is on the rebound. Not that it had too far to rebound from, however. Not-for-profit and entrance-fee LPCs/CCRCs (we will refer to them all as CCRCs) had average occupancy between 90% and 92% in the 99 primary and secondary markets for the 10 years prior to the pandemic. Rental CCRCs were not too far behind but started to diverge (trend lower) between 2014 and 2015, according to the data. With the onset of the pandemic, all forms of CCRCs, whether not-for-profit, for-profit, rental or entrance fee, saw similar drops in census that were seen across the industry and all... Read More »Schedule a demo
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