Is Brookdale Bottoming Out
Even though Brookdale Senior Living reported its lowest census levels ever in February, the month-to-month declines were low and may signal a bottom soon. As most of you know, I have been pretty negative about where things were going last year, and how long it might take for the industry to dig out of its hole. But my gut tells me things are beginning to turn around. Brookdale Senior Living just reported on its February occupancy, and I believe it is the first major seniors housing company to report average occupancy for the month below 70%. It hit 69.4%. That’s the bad news. The good news is that the monthly decline of 60 basis points was the smallest since last March. And the month-end... Read More »
Home Health vs. Assisted Living
If people need care and full-time supervision, there is no cost comparison between assisted living and home health. Here’s a real life example. A friend recently asked for some advice (true story) about her 85-year old mother who was hospitalized, then went to a rehab facility, and then had the decision between moving back home or to an assisted living community. I think the family was inclined to assisted living, but mom wanted to go home, of course. The assisted living community in Connecticut, operated by a well-respected regional chain, offered $4,300 per month for a one-bedroom unit, but after the assessment admitted that she may be bumped up a care level or two. Given the... Read More »
Senior Care Leading Indicators
There has not been a lot of good news, but given some leading indicators, the next development boom may be a bit further out than we had expected four months ago. Our focus for the past 12 months has been on the coronavirus pandemic and what it has done to seniors housing and care occupancy rates. We are also on record as stating that getting back to pre-pandemic census levels may take up to four years, partly because we expect development to ramp up again when developers eye the post-2025 demographics. But something else has been happening that may keep some builders away. First, the 10-year treasury rate has more than doubled in the past seven months. Yes, 1.36% is still attractive, but... Read More »
LTC Properties Transitioning Senior Lifestyle Corp.
LTC Properties reported fourth quarter and full year earnings late last week, and while there is some uncertainty, management appears to have a good handle on how they are dealing with it. This is especially true with the 23 communities leased to Senior Lifestyle Corporation (SLC), which we will get to below. One interesting statistic that came out is that with 71% of their private pay tenants reporting, actual occupancy dropped from 79% on September 30 to 72% on December 31, one of the largest quarterly declines we have seen. The good news is that one month later occupancy stood at 71% on January 31, so the rate of decline has slowed significantly. LTC’s... Read More »
Buyers Paid Premium For Strong Operations in 2020
In 2020, there was yet again a perfect correlation between the average price per unit paid for seniors housing communities and their operating margins. Throughout 2020, as occupancy and cash flow at senior care facilities dropped and costs of financing rose, we wondered exactly how the pandemic would affect the pricing of these assets. Would it have a disparate effect on skilled nursing versus seniors housing properties, older properties versus new ones, or on stabilized facilities versus non stabilized. We are almost done compiling all these statistics in the 26th Edition of The Senior Care Acquisition Report, but we wanted to highlight a historical trend that continued even through... Read More »Schedule a demo
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