Valuing SNFs During The Pandemic
With occupancy at historic lows, and expenses in flux, it has been difficult to value nursing homes in today’s market. But it is happening every day despite the uncertainty. With occupancy still in turmoil and many nursing homes reliant on federal aid to pay the bills, it must be quite difficult to underwrite and value individual nursing facilities, let alone a portfolio of them. But it is happening every day. What assumptions do you make for occupancy, and census mix? What is a normalized level of PPE expenses, and will this be indefinite? And then you have labor costs and supply. With a Biden/Harris administration, is a $15 national minimum wage around the corner, and will... Read More »
Senior Care Soars
What happened on November 9 was a bit of a shock, but in a good way. Senior care and REIT stocks soared after a year of forgettable foibles. The reason? Pfizer’s announcement that its COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective, and that it could be available very soon, combined with the apparent end of the presidential election with Joe Biden the victor. We believe it was the end of the uncertainty on both accounts that pushed the market up. For those not paying attention, the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point during the day hit a record high of 29,933, up 5.68% from the previous close. It ended the day up 2.95%. But it was the senior care market and its related REITs... Read More »
Capital Senior Living Continues to Shrink
As many of you know, for several years we have been pressing Brookdale Senior Living to reduce its size further than what it has already accomplished. In the meantime, Capital Senior Living is getting smaller by the day, and while we understand why, we certainly hope Brookdale does not go down this somewhat extreme path in size (very doubtful). Cap Senior is now forecasting to be one-half the size it was two years ago, with 60 owned communities and eight managed. The leases will be gone. During the course of the third quarter, like other operators, Capital Senior Living has been improving its capital structure, shedding unprofitable leases, handing properties over... Read More »
Brookdale Senior Living Reports
Even in the depths of a pandemic and a disrupted economy, there is always the bright side of things, right? Brookdale Senior Living, the largest seniors housing provider in the country, reported its third quarter earnings results and certainly had some positive things to say about where the company is today and how it will improve in the future. Always lead with your best. Unfortunately, shareholders focused on the problems and sent the share price down by 15% right off the bat. The good news for the future is that they completed a major lease restructuring with Ventas, reducing future cash rent by about $500 million over the remaining lease term ending in December 2025.... Read More »
Is The Election Over Yet?
No matter who wins, there will be violence and we still have not dealt with Social Security and Medicare. Pathetic. Unfortunately, I am writing this just after I voted today, but before we will know the outcome for the White House and the Senate. I think it is a safe bet that the House will remain where it is, more or less. It was the first time I have ever had to wait in line, 30 minutes. I have now voted in 12 presidential elections, and I am sad to say that I voted for the winner in just four of them, with one still unknown. Not a good track record, or am I out of step with the rest of the country? Perhaps, but I don’t like to think so. But in those 12 elections, this is the first time... Read More »Schedule a demo
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