Change Will Be Coming To Seniors Housing
What if there is more to the decline in seniors housing occupancy than just new development? Sometimes it seems I just think too much about this industry. For instance, it has been bothering me that occupancy continues to decline, even in quarters when it should be rising. New development has been having an impact, of course. But what if there is something else going on, or maybe multiple things? A lot is going to happen, and change, between now and when the first boomer turns 80 in 2026, and we may have to wait until they are 85 or even older for the “big impact.” Everyone has been focused on this demographic, and there is the often discussed thought of, what if we increase penetration... Read More »
Private Equity Taking Center Stage
In every investment cycle, there are different factors that impact valuations and transaction volume. In the seniors housing and care acquisition market, there have been periods when public REITs came to dominate acquisition activity, then there were nontraded REITs that took center stage (at least for smaller transactions), and there has been the private equity (PE) market, which has very different investment criteria and time horizons than many of the other buyers. The two largest acquisitions by private equity firms in the seniors housing and care market occurred about 10 years ago. This was The Carlyle Group’s acquisition of Manor Care for $6.3 billion and The Fortress Group’s purchase... Read More »
Financial Modeling for Seniors Housing Acquisitions Has Changed
Financial modeling for seniors housing and care is not as easy as it used to be, when revenues could be assumed to rise faster than expenses. Have you noticed that financial modeling for seniors housing and care is not as easy as it used to be? In the past, forecasters (and buyers) would model 2% increases in annual costs and 3% increases in revenues. This would build in a growing profit amount, which always looked good to lenders and investors. One of the problems with this was that annual capital expenditures were always, and I mean always, low-balled. Often it was a plug number at $300 per unit or bed, when it should have been three, four or five times that amount. The problem today is... Read More »
Seniors Housing And Affordability
New development is widely blamed for occupancy declines, but affordability may be just as culpable. Declining occupancy in seniors housing has been a major issue for the past 18 months or so, and while it took some providers way too long to admit that new development was taking its toll on census, there may be other things at work. One big one is affordability. While analysts celebrate that rents have gone up 3% despite census declines, remember that the numbers are based on asking rents. Just possibly, however, those rising asking rents are scaring some people away. I have not seen any statistical analysis on this, but I think the seniors housing sector really has to take a hard look at... Read More »Quality Care Properties Seeking Receiver for HCR ManorCare
Quality Care Properties is taking its issues with HCR ManorCare (the lack of full rent payments) one step further. Late yesterday QCP announced that it is initiating a legal process to appoint an independent receiver to oversee the operation of the skilled nursing and assisted living properties that it owns which are leased to HCRMC. Apparently, the two companies had previously agreed that QCP would have the right to appoint a receiver to operate the properties if HCRMC defaulted on the leases. That default has already occurred. Assuming the California State Court appoints a receiver, QCP plans to start transitioning the properties to new owners and operators. They believe there will... Read More »Schedule a demo
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