Missing Out On Bad News
A vacation is a horrible thing when bad news hits the market. It is a horrible thing to go on vacation when all sorts of things are happening in the market, but such was the case last week. What I missed was the roll-out of earnings and the very disappointing occupancy numbers. For some, they were worse than the weak results posted for the second quarter by NIC. The ubiquitous villain was the tail of last winter’s flu season. But it seems the seniors housing sector is surviving on a two steps backward, one step forward cycle, and not making up much ground. What still amazes me is that the warning signs were there in abundance well over a year ago, yet too many people ignored them. Leading... Read More »
The Hyper Focus On Occupancy
Why do investors, lenders and analysts focus so much on occupancy in seniors housing? Operating margin became much less important over the years compared with the absolute level of cash flow earned. This makes sense since a property’s value is derived from the cash flow, not the margin, and increased value from increased cash flow, not a better margin. The one caveat is that as the operating margin increases, the absolute level of cash flow should also increase, but not always. Getting back to occupancy, we follow it closely because trends in occupancy can tell us so much about a company and the markets where it operates. In today’s environment, everyone seems to be blaming consistently... Read More »
No Deal For Brookdale Senior Living Yet
Brookdale Senior Living remains in a rut, and the Chinese option may be disappearing. For some reason, Brookdale Senior Living has kept out of the news recently, which is a good thing. What’s not so good is that its share price continues to be stuck in a rut. What also is not so good is that with the recent second quarter occupancy numbers out of NIC, we have to assume that given Brookdale’s size, their occupancy levels contributed to the downward trend in occupancy. Also not good. Everyone continues to wait on news of a buyer for Brookdale to come forward. The Chinese card seems to be disappearing given that the U.S. authorities are scrutinizing Chinese sponsored acquisitions more... Read More »Seniors Housing Occupancy Weakens
NIC announced their second quarter occupancy and development trends, and unfortunately it was not pretty. After a first quarter which suffered from the ubiquitous flu season census declines, we had expected, at worst, a small sequential decline in the second quarter, but perhaps a small 10 to 20 basis point uptick, maybe even better. For majority assisted living in the top 31 MSAs, for those properties open for two years (stabilized properties) average occupancy dropped 50 basis points from the first quarter to 88.9%, but down 80 basis points from the year-ago quarter. Historically, the average second quarter sequential decline is 10 basis points, and the current 50 basis point drop was... Read More »Schedule a demo
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