As cap rates rise, AL prices stay

Last week, we wrote that while the average price per unit for IL communities fell by over $30,000 from the calendar year 2014 to the four quarters ending Q2:15, the average cap rate remained at 7.4%. Meanwhile, the inverse was true for the assisted living market. The average price per unit for AL communities rose slightly from $188,700 to $189,500, just a 0.4% change, over the same period, but the average cap rate rose 15 basis points from 7.75% in 2014 to 7.9% in the four quarters ending Q2:15. This could partially be explained by the fact that the IL market can be more mercurial than the AL market, as there is a more constant and stable need for assisted living. But to explain the rise... Read More »

As prices fall, IL cap rates stay

The average price per unit for independent living had the most dramatic change of the other acuity classes (a 13% drop from 2014 to the 12-months ending June 30, 2015, compared to a 0.4% increase for assisted living and a 3% drop for skilled nursing in the same time period), so one would expect some move in average cap rate, presumably a move up. But, the average IL cap rate for the 12-months ending June 30 did not budge from its 2014 level of 7.4%. Perhaps the quality of IL transactions hasn’t changed, with owners of high-quality communities still tempted by the high valuations, but there just have not been as many of those ultra-high end sales this year. Read More »

Cap Rates And Reality

There appears to be a feeding frenzy on where cap rates should be, and the frenzy is only taking them lower. Did you read about the fully stabilized assisted living community that sold for a 3.5% cap rate on first year numbers? You didn’t? April fools, neither did I. But don’t be surprised if it happens given the way the market is going. Two months ago, while attending a seniors housing conference, we heard a rather matter-of-fact statement that cap rates for “A” properties were in the range of 5.5% to 6.0%, and “B” properties were in the broad 6% range. While our annual statistics do not bear this out, we do know that there are transactions done with cap rates between 5% and 6%, with a... Read More »