NIC MAP Q3 Occupancy Results Fall Short Of Expectations
In more normal times, whatever that may be, the third quarter is supposed to be a good one for occupancy increases, perhaps the best quarter of the year. Not so in the past three years, however. NIC MAP has reported yet another slow month for seniors housing occupancy, which does not bode well for the rest of the year or for early 2018. The modest (10 basis points) increase in assisted living occupancy, combined with the modest decrease (-10 basis points) for independent living, does not bode well for the fourth quarter, when recent weather-related events will surely have a negative impact. Following that will be the first quarter flu season problems, which in 2017 lasted well into the... Read More »
Independent Living Market Outperforms
First quarter data from NIC MAP shows IL occupancy again exceeding assisted living, but with less new development. What is it about the independent living community market that keeps occupancy more stable than assisted living, yet sees a much lower level of new development? In the latest NIC MAP data on the first quarter, the IL market outperformed the AL market again, even though IL occupancy did slip a bit sequentially and year over year. I have a hard time understanding why there is not more development in the IL side of the business. Yes, they are larger properties that require more capital and a longer fill time, but it just seems they can be more tailored to any market’s particular... Read More »Seniors Housing Occupancy Continues Its Decline
As many people expected, seniors housing occupancy levels declined in the first quarter this year, with assisted living posting larger declines than independent living. According to the recently released NIC MAP data, primarily assisted living communities in the 31 primary markets posted a sequential drop in occupancy of 50 basis points to 87.2%, and a year-over-year drop of 100 basis points. Even though these numbers were sort of expected, there was some hope that the sector was starting to turn things around in the quarter. Not yet. It was a little surprising that half the year-over-year drop came in one quarter, however. On the independent living side, occupancy in the top 31 markets... Read More »Occupancy, Rates And Discounting In Seniors Housing
The recent NIC MAP data on occupancy, development and rate growth can be interpreted in many ways. So, what are we really to make of the NIC MAP data for the first quarter? Most of the data was viewed positively, despite a smallish decline in occupancy from last year’s fourth quarter. Absorption levels have been increasing, according to the data, and construction starts as a percent of existing supply declined from both the fourth quarter and the year-ago quarter. Does this mean that the much-feared over-building threat has dissipated? Hardly, as one quarter’s worth of data does not present a strong trend, and it is possible the small decline in starts was related to the chaos in the... Read More »