Occupancy, Rates And Discounting In Seniors Housing
The recent NIC MAP data on occupancy, development and rate growth can be interpreted in many ways. So, what are we really to make of the NIC MAP data for the first quarter? Most of the data was viewed positively, despite a smallish decline in occupancy from last year’s fourth quarter. Absorption levels have been increasing, according to the data, and construction starts as a percent of existing supply declined from both the fourth quarter and the year-ago quarter. Does this mean that the much-feared over-building threat has dissipated? Hardly, as one quarter’s worth of data does not present a strong trend, and it is possible the small decline in starts was related to the chaos in the... Read More »The Future of the 40-Year Old SNF
Nearly half of the skilled nursing facilities in the U.S. are 40 years old and older, and that is going to be a big problem? Have you ever wondered what is going to happen to all those skilled nursing facilities that were built in the 1960s and 1970s, and look it? Some are even older, although I hope most of them have had some sort of renovation over the years. These “old” nursing facilities are going to struggle over the next 10 years, if they are not already struggling today. They are usually small from a square feet per bed basis with a high Medicaid census. Many would have difficulty taking care of high acuity subacute patients. And I suspect most would not be sought after in any kind... Read More »Assisted Living “Lite” Or Not
Whether you think you operate your assisted living community under a hospitality model or a healthcare model, there will only be more health care in the future. Recently, there have been some stories in the senior care media about the hospitality model for assisted living compared with the healthcare model. That was a big debate in the late 1990s when 20 assisted living companies went public as some companies didn’t want to be labeled as “healthcare” companies, with all the regulatory and reimbursement baggage that comes with it. Some preferred to call the hospitality model “assisted living lite.” In fact, the founder of Sunrise Senior Living was famously quoted as saying Sunrise did not... Read More »Time To Move Forward
Activist shareholders can distract management from focusing on growth and cash flow, and maybe Brookdale and Capital Senior Living can move forward in peace. Don’t you just hate distractions. Andy Smith at Brookdale has had to deal with a bunch of activist shareholders for the past year while trying to right his ship. Larry Cohen of Capital Senior Living had his activist several years ago, who then went on his board and became aligned with management’s goals. In round two this year, he has come to agreement with another one, Lucas Advisors, known by some as the trust fund baby hedge fund. Capital has agreed to appoint a new independent Board member, consulting with Lucas on the... Read More »Senior Care Investment Rebound
After a dismal first six weeks this year, stocks have rebounded in a big way. Many of you know that I have been talking and writing about the change in investor sentiment that was taking place from late last year and into 2016. It really culminated in mid-February when pretty much all the senior care provider stocks and REITs collapsed to their new lows. It was all rather depressing, but also counterintuitive because things were not all that bad at the time. Sure, there was some negative news, but the overreaction in the market was just plain astounding. Many people thought it represented a major buying opportunity, even though they were still nervous and wondered if we were really at the... Read More »Schedule a demo
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