Genesis HealthCare Plunges
After falling by 60% in 2015, Genesis shares plunge on revised revenue and earnings forecasts. Talk about a disaster. Just when we thought all senior care stocks had bottomed out, Genesis HealthCare wasn’t done. All the others are now well above their recent lows, but Genesis plunged 32% on Monday and late yesterday was down another 12% when the overall market was up over 200 points. Why? Management revised downward its revenue and EBITDA estimates for 2015, and also revised downward their forecast for 2016. This was the second negative earnings surprise in less than a year, for which values get crucified. But here’s the rub. The share price had already dropped by 31% in December, and had... Read More »
Schizophrenia in the development market?
In our most recent webinar, held on January 21 and titled “Investing in the Senior Care Development Market,” we asked our listeners a couple of questions to gauge their opinion on certain potentially pivotal matters in the industry. First, we asked “Today, is it better to build or buy?” And second, we posed the question, “Do you think the development market will boom or bust?” Not surprisingly, over two-thirds (72% to be exact) of the audience preferred building to buying these days, and we suspect that acquisition prices as they are must play a big part in that divide. But, after that relatively optimistic response to the development market, 75% of the audience believed the development... Read More »Investing In The Senior Care Development Market
The development activity in seniors housing is increasing, and anyone thinking about investing or lending in this market should attend tomorrow’s webinar. Will 2016 be the year that sets the stage for the future of the seniors housing development market? There have been two sides of the story, those who think that demand will increase enough to counter the current uptick in development we have been witnessing. And those who see the rate of new development accelerating this year and into 2017 and 2018 that will have significant negative ramifications in some markets. Regardless of where you stand in this argument, construction starts seem to be rising, and seniors housing is still a... Read More »
Have We Finally Bottomed Out?
With senior care stocks plunging in recent weeks, it appears we may have finally bottomed out with a significant rally on January 14. I am sure many of you were watching in despair as senior care stocks have been plummeting since the beginning of the year. It was not rational, it had little to do with core value, it had little to do with current operating performance, and it really did feed on itself. And, seniors housing and care stocks get thrown in the “health care” bucket at mutual funds and other institutional investors, so if they decide to lower their holdings in health care, for whatever reason, the senior care baby gets thrown out with the healthcare bathwater. But hundreds of... Read More »Senior Care Prospects Dimming With Investors
Investors are selling senior care stocks, and perhaps because occupancy is in a rut with increasing construction starts. So, what are we to make of the dismal start of the New Year? Investors have hammered away at senior care stocks, and it has been ugly. On Monday, Brookdale Senior Living, Capital Senior Living, Genesis Healthcare and Kindred Healthcare all hit new lows. Who would have thought? Is it a sector problem with investors, or are they nervous about the near-term future? Last week NIC MAP released its fourth quarter occupancy numbers, and while some analysts saw the positive side of a slight sequential increase in overall seniors housing occupancy, the reality is that it is still... Read More »Schedule a demo
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