Capital Senior Living Disappoints, And Pays A Price
We have now become nervous with each earnings period because there just seem to be too many surprises. Unfortunately, these surprises have usually been negative. Three months after being positive about the direction of the company, Capital Senior Living spooked investors not only with their poor results in the second quarter, but their dismal prospects for the rest of the year. When you underperform expectations, and cut full-year forecasts by 20%, you should expect the worst. And the worst was a 23% plunge in the share price on August 1, followed by a 5% decline the following morning. Volume was 6x the average, but not heavy in absolute terms. The news also took Brookdale Senior Living... Read More »
Should Cap Rates Go Lower?
Two major REIT CEOs can see seniors cap rates moving below multifamily for the first time. The Big Two REITs have reported their second earnings, and while occupancy and labor costs certainly remain an issue for their operating partners, there was one funny comment that came out of the calls. Well, funny if you get your kicks from these sorts of things the way I do. Apparently, Welltower CEO Tom DeRosa and Ventas CEO Debbie Cafaro see eye to eye on at least one thing. As one analyst joked, they both apparently agree that seniors housing cap rates should be lower than multifamily, and I think they were even talking about assisted living. The reason? Because demand will do nothing but grow,... Read More »
Sale of Quality Care Properties Approved
By a margin of 26-1, shareholders approved the sale of Quality Care Properties to Welltower for $20.75 per share in cash, with Welltower teaming up with ProMedica Health System, which will own the HCR ManorCare operating business, lease the facilities from Welltower, and also own the home health and hospice business. Shareholders also approved the compensation packages for QCP’s executives but at a much smaller margin of 1.14-1.0. Although we have not seen a closing date, we expect all the transactions to close in the next few weeks. We are sure Welltower would like to have it all wrapped up in time for the August 3 second quarter earnings calls. It will be interesting to see how the HCR... Read More »
Occupancy And Active Adult Communities
Seniors housing occupancy hits a low because of new supply, while active adult communities begin to take off. As you know, occupancy in seniors housing now stands at a low point since the Great Recession, especially on the assisted living side. Eighteen months ago, “the market” was looking for a turn around by the second half of 2018. Not happening. Now it is the second half of 2019, with some looking at 2020. Maybe happening. New supply has obviously had its impact, and people keep on developing. But some developers are moving into what is variously called the 55+ market or “active adult” communities. They are easier to zone, cheaper to build and don’t require much staff, all important... Read More »
The Warning Signs Were There
With assisted living occupancy now at an eight-year low, the reasons seemed very obvious a few years ago. I am a hoarder. I like to keep reports, articles, magazines and anything else of interest pertaining to seniors housing and care. So, last night I was cleaning up some papers stacked in my office and came across one of Jerry Doctrow’s first blogs since retiring from Stifel Nicolaus in 2015. Dated January 6, 2016, it was called, “Why Near-Term Trends Could Spell Trouble for Senior Housing.” As I re-read it, all I thought was, why didn’t more people see the problem back then? NIC MAP had just come out with its most recent quarterly data on occupancy and construction, and while not... Read More »Schedule a demo
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