NIC Takeaways
Record NIC attendance hints at continued investor and lender interest in seniors housing and care. It was yet another record crowd at the NIC Conference, which brings up a point I kept on making. If the headwinds are so strong, on many fronts, why are there still so many more people who want to invest, lend or operate in this business? The simple answer is good returns and an even better future, at some point. What were my takeaways? First, that there is just too much equity capital available. Think about that. Ten, 15 and 20 years ago, that statement would have been laughed at. Second, the skilled nursing sector appears to be primed to turn around before seniors housing. Why? There is... Read More » NIC, Valuations and Big Deals
Join me Wednesday afternoon at 4:00 pm as I moderate the NIC Valuations session. By the time you are watching this, I will be walking around the meeting rooms, receptions, and various sessions at the NIC Conference. And please join me today at 4:00 pm as I am moderating the session on valuations called, “What’s It Really Worth?” If you want to find out the answer, join us. But it is a very good question in today’s market, where capital is still abundant, but the 10-year Treasury rate has doubled in a year and a half. Occupancies are still weak across the board, but there are plenty of providers producing a healthy amount of cash flow. The minimum wage is rising across the country, but that... Read More »
Seniors Housing Occupancy Woes
Recent third quarter data was not promising, but are we looking at the wrong numbers? When NIC released its occupancy stats last week, people were hoping for good news. Hope, however, is not a business plan. The third quarter has historically been a “make-up” quarter, making up for the usual dismal first quarter and the now not-so-good second quarter. It didn’t happen this year, and as we head into the flu season, that is very troubling. What may be more troubling is that in the top 31 MSAs, assisted living unit growth is still at its highest levels since before 2006. And while moderating, assisted living construction as a percent of inventory is still higher than it has been in 13 years.... Read More »
Missing Out On Bad News
A vacation is a horrible thing when bad news hits the market. It is a horrible thing to go on vacation when all sorts of things are happening in the market, but such was the case last week. What I missed was the roll-out of earnings and the very disappointing occupancy numbers. For some, they were worse than the weak results posted for the second quarter by NIC. The ubiquitous villain was the tail of last winter’s flu season. But it seems the seniors housing sector is surviving on a two steps backward, one step forward cycle, and not making up much ground. What still amazes me is that the warning signs were there in abundance well over a year ago, yet too many people ignored them. Leading... Read More »